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Prediction for CME (2014-08-22T06:28:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-08-22T06:28Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-08-27T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -76
Dst min. time: 2014-08-27T18:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-08-27T00:00Z
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2014 Aug 23 1033 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A partial halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 data from August 22 11:24 UT onwards. It is associated with the C2 flare peaking at 10:27 UT from NOAA AR 2146, and with type II and IV radio bursts. Despite the location of the source region near the central meridian, the bulk of the mass was expelled in western direction from the sun earth line. The angular width was however underestimated by CACTUS, which due to the weaker additional north-eastern and south-eastern components is almost full halo. The projected speed is around 400 km/s. 
It was followed by a second partial halo CME first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 16:36 UT associated to the C6 flare peaking at 15:52 from the same region (NOAA AR 2146) and associated type II radio emission. The appearance of the second CME is roughly comparable with the first CME. A dominant westward component with an additional north-eastern component, but now lacking the south-eastern component.
Unfortunately STEREO A coronagraph data are absent for both events, and there are no clear signatures in the available STEREO B coronagraph data.
A glancing blow from the combination of both CME's may be expected around UT midnight August 26/27.
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Lead Time: 85.45 hour(s)
Difference: 0.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-08-23T10:33Z
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