CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-08-22T06:28:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2014 Aug 23 1033 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A partial halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 data from August 22 11:24 UT onwards. It is associated with the C2 flare peaking at 10:27 UT from NOAA AR 2146, and with type II and IV radio bursts. Despite the location of the source region near the central meridian, the bulk of the mass was expelled in western direction from the sun earth line. The angular width was however underestimated by CACTUS, which due to the weaker additional north-eastern and south-eastern components is almost full halo. The projected speed is around 400 km/s. 
It was followed by a second partial halo CME first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 16:36 UT associated to the C6 flare peaking at 15:52 from the same region (NOAA AR 2146) and associated type II radio emission. The appearance of the second CME is roughly comparable with the first CME. A dominant westward component with an additional north-eastern component, but now lacking the south-eastern component.
Unfortunately STEREO A coronagraph data are absent for both events, and there are no clear signatures in the available STEREO B coronagraph data.
A glancing blow from the combination of both CME's may be expected around UT midnight August 26/27.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.  Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use      #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.                                   #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php        #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy